Fauci has become an impediment to rational policy choice. He is talking his book and his book was and is wrong.
The data pretty clearly show that for those under 45 (the principal cadre of industrialized country work forces) the true mortality rate is not going up nor is it hugely high. But expectations of testing and hospitalization have been pushed up way out of line with what the current state of treatment availability and success rates can do.
(I ignore developing countries with high density cities whose public resources are badly limited. That is an issue more closely aligned with underdevelopment and resource limitations of the state, both financial and physical).
Distancing and working on hotspots are a legitimate strategy which should be promoted along with a careful statement by health care and political leaders that policy has to be one of triage — treating heavily those most likely to recover. Lockdown is not a strategy that can promote recovery. Lockdown may work to save Grandma, but at whose expense? Re-opening is not heartless. It is fighting back. It is doing what we have to do to survive and prosper once again. There will be casualties, and some will die. That is what happens in war.
It is “Heartless” but not “Headless”. It is a health truth, but our Politicos lack the courage to tell the public what the current state of medical arts can do. We have a political aversion to truth that is totally bipartisan. Churchill understood that in 1940 but we have no Churchill to lead the public.
We have dealt with and can deal with the physical capacity issues of medical treatment. NYC proved that. But we are going to have death loss in the + 45 age group. Not high in % terms but a family that loses a parent or a grandparent will not be easily consoled.
Those are the facts. Until we have a viable set of treatments (forget about a quick vaccine answer this year), our major focus is recovery for those most likely to recover. In the meantime, we will have casualties and death loss. That is what triage means in war and this is a war.
Political lying only encourages bad policy.
Now, the real risk is the economic recovery. And wringing tears from Fauci are an obstacle course. They can only promote bad policy as is evident in Democratic Helicopter Money proposals today. The talking heads all criticize markets and public firms about being so short run focused on next quarter’s earnings. From what I read public firms are adapting very quickly and considering how to operate with the virus going forward.
I don’t see that same degree of adaptability and innovation in the public sector — take the Tesla Tantrum as an example or closing the Fall semester at CSU! The right public strategy is to work out a plan that allows some reopening, and not stand on ceremony! By the way non-elected permanent bureaucrats rule with as much foresight as George III once did! They are not accountable!
And adaptability and innovation are the critical strategic aptitudes of winners in war and again this is a war!
Unfortunately Trump is not a believable leader so I am at a loss as to how to get thoughtful strategy into the public arena over the crying towels of the public sobbing heads of the media or non-elected bureaucrats with fixed ideas and agenda.